Housing market: vacancy rate falls unchecked
Initial figures published indicate that the trend reversal in vacant apartments that began last year is continuing unabated. This is indicated by a Credit Suisse analysis.
According to Credit Suisse, the first figures from cantons and cities on vacant apartments for 2022 show that the decline in vacant apartments that began last year is continuing. This is most pronounced in the canton of Geneva (-26.1%), but the cantons of Vaud (-17.0%), Zurich (-15.5%) and Basel-Land (-3.6%) also report falling vacancy figures. Only the canton of Basel-Stadt, whose vacancy rates had already increased against the trend in the previous year, recorded a further increase of 7.5%. Overall, there were 13.9% fewer vacant apartments in the five cantons in June 2022 compared to the previous year. The decline has consequently accelerated compared to 2021 (-8.0%).
Vacancy rate expected to fall to around 1.35%
The decline in the vacancy rate observed last year for the first time since 2009 is therefore likely to have continued unabated, according to CS, which would equate to a drop in the vacancy rate from 1.54% in the previous year to around 1.35%. That would be the lowest level in six years. A key driver of the falling vacancy rate remains construction activity, which already peaked in 2019 and has continued to decline since then. At the same time, housing demand has continued to increase, driven by the economic recovery and further strengthening immigration.
The trend toward a housing shortage will continue, according to CS. According to the authors of the analysis, there is still no sign of a reaction in construction activity. The suspicion is that the insufficient construction activity is based not only on cyclical factors, but also on structural reasons, i.e. a growing shortage of land due to more restrictive political requirements. (aw)
